Growth in 2026 uncertain for ASML
Despite earlier expectations, chip machine manufacturer ASML can no longer guarantee continued growth in 2026.
Published on July 16, 2025
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ASML no longer dares to state with certainty that the company will still grow in 2026, despite earlier forecasts. Uncertainty in the market, mainly due to threats of U.S. import tariffs, has led ASML to be more cautious about long-term forecasts. Although the company remains optimistic in the long term, for example, due to growth in artificial intelligence, geopolitical developments could slow or disrupt growth.
Half-year figures and increasing uncertainty
During the presentation of its half-year figures, ASML's CEO tempered expectations for 2026. Although the company still expects growth, it can no longer guarantee that it will occur. Revenue in the past quarter was €7.7 billion, which is similar to the first quarter of this year. ASML notes that market uncertainty is increasing, partly due to the U.S. government's investigation into potential import tariffs specific to the semiconductor industry. These duties could increase the cost of ASML's machines, chips themselves, and products containing chips. The impact of import tariffs could affect ASML directly, for example, on machines or parts shipped to the U.S., or if European countries implement countermeasures. Some of ASML's production passes through the United States, so the company would incur double the cost in the event of reciprocal import duties.
ASML's reaction and long-term vision
ASML advises its suppliers not to be dependent on any one company, with a target of 20-30% dependence to better absorb fluctuations in demand. Despite current uncertainties, ASML remains optimistic about the long term, especially with growing investments in AI, which requires chips and chip machines. ASML's sales are now approaching €30 billion annually, and the company expects to double this to €60 billion in five years. However, the chaotic implementation of new trade measures makes it difficult for chip companies to plan significant investments, leading to additional caution in the chip machine market. CEO Christophe Fouquet stressed that ASML is preparing for growth in 2026, but cannot confirm this at this time.
Financial results and expectations
ASML posted strong second-quarter results with €5.54 billion in new orders. Analysts had expected €4.44 billion, showing that demand for advanced chip machines remains strong. For the third quarter, ASML expects revenue to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, which is below analysts' expectations. For the full year, the company is counting on 15% sales growth. However, this growth is threatened by the threat of U.S. tariffs on new systems and components, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. According to the CEO, these tariff threats could also hurt ASML's gross margin. Although semiconductors are currently exempt from U.S. tariffs, uncertainty remains over chip manufacturing equipment.
