EU climate plan 2040: ambitious, but with fallback options
The EU aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. Some of this reduction can be achieved outside Europe.
Published on July 2, 2025
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By 2040, emissions must be reduced by 90% compared to today. However, this can also be achieved by purchasing carbon credits outside of Europe. The new, controversial climate proposal must satisfy countries such as Poland and France, which are struggling with ambitious environmental plans. European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra lobbied diligently for the flexibility, whereby up to 3% of reduction measures may be filled by international carbon credits. This measure could, in theory, lead to additional CO2 emissions comparable to the Netherlands' current annual emissions. Critics, such as the European Scientific Advisory Board, claim, however, that this would undermine the EU's credibility. What does this increase in flexibility mean for the real impact on climate neutrality?
Divided opinions
The presentation of the EU's new climate target has caused division within Europe. In particular, Poland, Italy, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia were initially reluctant because of their economic and political interests. Hoekstra had to navigate between the demands of different member states by offering a “goat's path”: countries are allowed to offset part of their CO2 emissions outside the EU through carbon credits. This has generated controversy, as it seems to justify countries shifting efforts to regions with less stringent environmental laws. The debate remains fierce within the EU summit, with emphatic views from both supporters and opponents.
Impact of carbon credits
The introduction of carbon credits as an alternative to direct emissions reductions within Europe has sparked discussions about their actual impact on climate goals. While the flexibility is intended to reconcile economic growth with environmental goals, it may also mean that the actual reductions do not occur in Europe, but rather elsewhere. The EU suggests a 3% cap on such offsets, active from 2036. Critics argue that this trend could weaken real ecological progress within the EU and rely on less transparent emissions trading markets. The annual potential CO2 reduction, comparable to all of the Netherlands' emissions, demonstrates both the scale and controversy surrounding the plan.
Reactions of European leaders
Government leaders have varying reactions to Hoekstra's plans. France, led by President Macron, emphasizes the need to weigh targets against business competitiveness carefully. German authorities favor some flexibility, as evidenced by the plea for 3% offsets through carbon credits to protect their national industrial interests. The Danish prime minister has taken over the gavel from the Polish representatives, stressing the urgent need for unity and consensus to achieve the climate goals. Consequently, negotiations within the EU summit are complex, as various national priorities are weighed against one another.
Scientific Council warns
The European Scientific Advisory Board has been critical of offset plans with carbon credits. They warn that such an approach threatens the EU's credibility and lowers the likelihood of climate neutrality by 2050. The council calls for reductions in emissions within the EU's borders, recommending that 90 to 95 percent of the reductions should come from its technological advances. This emphasizes a more sustainable, direct reduction methodology that can also provide economic benefits to the region.
Outlook to 2040 and beyond
The EU's long-term goal is to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, with a current 90% reduction target serving as an intermediate step. This requires, despite the flexibility granted to member states, significant domestic efforts to develop and implement green technologies. Without question, the EU remains under pressure to promote innovations that both reduce emissions and provide economic benefits. The discussion on this climate policy aims to strike a balance between ambitious environmental initiatives and practical feasibility, with the certainty that the coming months will be crucial for the future of European climate policy.
