ASML cautious on 2026 despite strong Q3 2025 results
ASML reports strong results in the last quarter, but stays cautions about the months to come amid tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Published on October 15, 2025
Research and Development, © ASML
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ASML, the Veldhoven-based leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, reported strong Q3 2025 results, with net sales of €7.5 billion and net income of €2.1 billion. However, the company has tempered its growth expectations for 2026, citing uncertainty around geopolitical tensions, potential U.S. import tariffs, and the impact on the semiconductor industry. Despite this, ASML remains optimistic about long-term opportunities, particularly in the AI sector, which is driving demand for its advanced chip-making equipment.
While ASML anticipates a strong Q4 2025, the company is also preparing for a potential decrease in sales to China in 2026. This expected decline is attributed to the resolution of previously backlogged orders from the COVID-19 pandemic period. The broader geopolitical landscape remains a concern, with tensions between China and other nations creating a volatile environment for high-tech companies. These tensions and potential trade measures introduce uncertainties into ASML's long-term forecasts.
AI as a growth driver
Despite the challenges, ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet, expressed optimism about the future, particularly regarding investments in artificial intelligence (AI). AI development requires advanced chips, which in turn rely on ASML's cutting-edge chip-making machines. Fouquet anticipates that the growing demand from the AI sector will provide a significant boost to the company's performance in the coming years. ASML expects lithography to remain central to customer innovation, with an increase in critical lithography exposures.
"In line with our plans to support our customers in the 3D integration space, we shipped ASML’s first product serving Advanced Packaging, the TWINSCAN XT:260, an i-line scanner offering up to 4x productivity compared to existing solutions. Finally, our partnership with Mistral AI allows us to embed AI across our entire portfolio to increase the performance and productivity of our systems and the yield of our customers' processes," said in a statement ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet.
ASML maintains a long-term vision of significant semiconductor industry growth by 2030. The company plans to continue returning substantial cash to shareholders through growing dividends and share buybacks, with a new share buyback program scheduled to be announced in January 2026.