Understanding the future begins with knowing yourself

The Dutch are gloomy about the future. Perhaps that's not so strange: climate change lurks, and we are bombarded with information through various channels. In my series 'Future Thinkers,' I explore how we can look differently and be more hopeful in the future. In the first article, I spoke to the initiators of The National Future Course: Rudy van Belkom and Roanne van Voorst. Together with futurologists, strategists, and speculative designers, they developed “a medicine against despondency.”

I took the course myself. It brought me insights into how to look at the future. Such as being open to what is coming, letting go of assumptions, being creative, and sharing my perspectives. For an additional depth of what these skills mean and how to explore the future, I spoke with two future thinkers: Tessa Cramer, lecturer in Designing the Future at Fontys Universities of Applied Sciences, and Erna Ovaa, program leader of Strategic Explorations at the Department of Public Works.

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Learning to look ahead

Cramer finds it interesting that in school, during history lessons, we learn to look back but not to relate to the future. “We can scientifically substantiate and reconstruct what happened. We can do the same in the future.”

Of course, the future cannot be predicted, Cramer continues. The future is uncertain, so she finds it a fascinating field of study. She defines her work as “systematically researching the future and using it to inform decision-making in the here and now.” “I show with my work that the future is a place where a lot is still possible, provided we can imagine it. And that imagining is still a tall order. I try to make people aware of their blind spots and make them look at the future differently.”

Cramer sees that people often approach the future from their current knowledge. “Because we don't know what the future holds.” Sometimes,mes we have to do something new to change. As Einstein said, 'We cannot solve complex problems by remaining in the same mindsets in which they were created.'”

By choosing now, you are, in part, determining the future. “An example is college choice. There is a lot to choose from these days. Do you choose a direction that suits you best? Something you want to learn more about? Or do you think if I study art history, I probably won't find a job and then choose a 'safe' option, like economics? Then you'll do something you weren't cut out for.”

Why do we find it hard to open up to what's coming? To do things very differently? Cramer asked a neuroscientist. “She explained that our brain works everything like a memory machine. We prefer to project our knowledge of the present onto the future. So, if we experience fear of a certain situation now, that also becomes the most realistic scenario. That's not true; it's just how it is in our heads.”

Tessa Cramer. Foto: Aicha Abdoun

Who do we want to be?

According to Cramer, future thinking begins with former Chief Government Architect Floris van Alkemade's fundamental question: who do we want to be? “That question forms the basis for changing direction. It matters what you wish and hope for yourself.”

Ovaa also believes it is essential to explore the future from hope. “Many organizations are used to looking at future scenarios and then figuring out how to remain as robust as possible as an organization in each scenario. Then you look at the future from a sense of fear, as it were. A future in which you want to keep what you have.”

Within Rijkswaterstaat (RWS), Ovaa set up the Strategic Exploration program in 2009, of which she is still the program leader after 15 years. RWS has been caring for the Netherlands' national waters and roads since 1798. It manages and develops roads, canals, and dikes and builds tunnels, locks, and bridges. Civil engineering works that must last for many years. Looking ahead is indispensable here.

According to Ovaa, you can also develop your strategy with a more open and positive attitude as an organization. “Strategy is about the function of your organization. If that society changes, it requires reflection on your role: what do you want to mean as an organization?”

Conscience function

Looking back on the program's early days, Ovaa says the Strategic Explorations program was deliberately placed far from implementation. Its mission was to look independently from the outside in and excite. Director General Bert Keijts called it “the conscience function of Rijkswaterstaat. “I still find that an interesting word. It has the word 'know' in it, which means knowledge, curiosity, and watching what happens. But also 'conscience. Keijts and his executive board wanted us to take a sharper look and think about things that may not align with how we think now but should be considered. For the long term or because there might be a risk involved if we don't consider it.”

Take our subsoil, she continues. “Around 2010, the topic of three-dimensional planning was on the rise. There was a growing enthusiasm to go more into the subsurface. How did we want to respond to this as Rijkswaterstaat? What were our interests in the subsurface? We explored that with Deltares (an independent institute for applied research on water and the subsurface, ed.).”

It was such a hot topic that more attention was paid to it, even within national politics. “When The Hague started working on a structure vision for the subsurface a while later, we had already determined our interests. We could interpret what happens when you reduce or stop groundwater withdrawals or pull cables that crossroads and waters.”

Erna Ovaa

Focus

Focusing on what is important to you is difficult when much is concentrated in the short term, speed, and urgency. Cramer also notices this in herself: “I would like to focus more on important things like writing about future thinking. When I entered a new year with that intention, I found going to the gym every day easier. It also gives me satisfaction when I can cross off my to-do list. You have to make space to work on your 'future.'”

Making that space is not yet commonplace. However, companies such as Google are creating it. The 20 percent rule applies; employees can spend that time on projects and ideas that benefit the company.

Within an organization like RWS, the urgency of the short term also regularly comes to the fore. Ovaa: “The fact that we discuss relevant developments does not mean that something is always done with them. Often, the delusion of the day applies anyway.” However, Ovaa says a seed is planted with such a discussion. “For example, it took a few years before the subject of 'labor market shortage' was recognized as a serious future problem.”

Cramer says keeping the focus is also essential, as well as asking critical questions, even in your personal life. “Sometimes it starts with something small. With climate change, you may find it hard to imagine what you can do. Ask yourself: what do I eat often, and where do I buy my food? Is that sustainable, or could I change something about that?”

Quest for what you don't know

RWS conducts a significant new foresight every 5 to 6 years to reassess its long-term strategy. The Strategic Explorations program works on that. The last broad exploration was called “Expedition RWS2050. Ovaa: “The word expedition expresses well what our DG Michèle Blom meant: to explore with an open mind, not knowing what you will bring back.”

Twelve couples - consisting of an expert and an RWS employee - traveled into the country. They explored various trends, including the future of agriculture, climate, information technology, and circular economy. In addition, trainees from RWS conducted interviews with different young people in subcultures, such as islanders on Texel, soccer players, and refugees. They asked them how they viewed the world order and how we would live and travel in 2050.

Those 12 trend analyses and the conversations formed the basis for four future scenarios. “They are a tool to have the conversation, internally and with our cooperation partners, about who we as RWS want to be in the future,” says Ovaa.

Letting go

That some images are difficult to let go of is evident from another example. For example, the board asked Ovaa to explore what RWS could contribute to the social theme of health care. “Then you might think: that's far apart. However, a healthcare professor immediately mentioned that RWS facilitates commuting. Along the way, there are gas stations where they can snack. “Of course, RWS can do something! But addressing that is extremely difficult because people like comfort. As RWS, we take steps; in some regions, for example, we have made agreements with companies to build an express bike path.”

According to Cramer, it can help you to let go by allowing yourself to be amazed. For example, through a painting, a book, or a movie. “Something that opens you up. It gives you a feeling of 'Wow, this is cool.' That kind of moment is what I wish for myself, but also for others. That you have a goosebump moment and realize what it's all about. Such a moment makes it possible to experience something big, like the future or a transition, much more directly. It helps me see the future differently. Just the other day at the movie Dune.”

I am consciously looking at myself and making choices for a future I hope for. I let go of thought patterns and allowed myself to wonder, share new thoughts, and hear those of others. This is how I will face the future. But that's not so easy yet; it's a matter of going and doing it. And doing that takes “blood, sweat, and tears. How will I do that? What does that look like in practice? More on that in the next story.