Trade without the US: Does the Netherlands have options?
What if the US stopped being a reliable trade partner for the Netherlands?
Published on May 22, 2025
Our DATA+ expert, Elcke Vels, explores AI, cyber security, and Dutch innovation. Her "What if..." column imagines bold scenarios beyond the norm.
Import duties, sanctions - the geopolitical climate is changing rapidly. The world is watching the trade relations between the US, China, the UK, and Europe with bated breath. Although the sky-high import duties on Chinese goods have been put on hold, the situation remains unpredictable. It is useful to keep looking ahead: what if, in a worst-case scenario, the United States were to disappear as a reliable trading partner for the Netherlands? André van Hoorn, professor of international economics and trade at Radboud University Nijmegen: “We could reorient ourselves towards Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa.”
The world watched the negotiations between China and the US with bated breath. It was touch and go, but now everything has been put on hold. The new trade agreements between the United States and China are temporary: import tariffs will be reduced. Stock markets shot up, and American companies placed large orders in China again.
Nevertheless, optimism is fragile. The deal is only valid for 90 days. On balance, the trade talks have led to a deterioration for the time being. Import duties on Chinese products exported to the US are at 30%, while import duties on US products to China are at 10%.
China will strengthen its domestic economy and wants to become less dependent on the US market. Perhaps this is a good example for Europe. We, too, are feeling the effects of Washington's tough trade policy. The British-American agreement maintains a 10% import tax on British goods. For the EU, this threshold may also be 10% – milder than previous threats, but still significantly higher than last year.
The Netherlands: a trading nation
It is logical to consider the consequences of losing a major trading partner such as the US, especially for the Netherlands, which relies heavily on international trade. “Philips has developed innovations that have changed people's lives worldwide,” says Van Hoorn. “When I was young, the CD came onto the market – before that, it was the cassette tape.” Both inventions were developed by Philips. How was that possible? International trade. “Philips was already active in Japan in the 1960s. You need a global market for products like that.” Other Dutch tech giants, such as ASML, are also heavily dependent on global trade.
The US: an important partner
The US has been one of the Netherlands' most important trading partners for decades. More than half of our exports – 54% – go to our five largest trading partners: Germany, Belgium, France, the UK, and the US.
And now the relationship is unstable. “I don't dare make any predictions anymore – it's all happening so fast,” says Van Hoorn. “Look at how the stock market recovered after the talks with China. Many people will be surprised at how limited the damage ultimately is. But for companies, including those in the Netherlands, that rely heavily on the US, import tariffs could have major consequences.”
Philips, for example, expects significantly lower profits this year. The Dutch government is also concerned about the chip sector. The Trump administration wants to blacklist more Chinese chip companies. ASML, which is active in China, could be affected by this. According to Minister of Economic Affairs Dirk Beljaarts, the cabinet is working on the possible consequences for the Dutch economy.
Worst-case scenario: What if the US drops out?
If the US were to disappear, the Netherlands would have to reorient itself to other markets. According to Van Hoorn, this is not impossible. He knows that countries in Southeast Asia, such as India, but also Brazil, Mexico, and emerging economies in Africa, are becoming increasingly important in world trade. Although some of these regions were just outside the business case until recently, geopolitical tensions are now forcing companies to explore alternatives. "Africa, with its young, fast-growing population and increasing economic development, is increasingly seen as a future growth market. Serious IT start-ups are popping up in Cape Town. India, with its large, English-speaking, and well-educated population, has been a sleeping giant for years, ready to explode in economic terms." West Africa has traditionally done a lot of trade with the Netherlands, particularly Nigeria and Ghana.
Relations with existing trading partners can also be strengthened. Although the United States is still an important trading partner, last year the EU exported many high-tech products to other countries, such as Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam.
In short, if the US becomes less reliable as a trading partner, there is a broad and growing international playing field to fall back on.
Made in Europe
The Trump administration's decisions are being criticized worldwide. Some countries and companies are turning away from the US—and that creates opportunities for Europe. Take Tesla, for example. Tesla deliveries have crashed by 43% in Europe so far this year. A major cause of this was Elon Musk's controversial role in US politics. “If confidence in American tech giants declines, there will be room for European players,” says Van Hoorn. “Europe has a strong industry, highly educated people, and a growing ecosystem around clean technology. There are opportunities here.”
And the Netherlands is at the forefront in many sectors. Take the automotive industry: with the rise of sustainable mobility and the innovative strength of companies such as DAF, VDL, and Ebusco, the Netherlands is strengthening its position as an international player. New import duties could give these Dutch manufacturers an extra boost.
