The false promise of hydrogen: why the 'green' hydrogen economy is still grey
Hydrogen is often presented as the solution for energy transition, but reality is less rosy. Merien argues why the hydrogen economy isn't nearly as green as promised.
Published on December 7, 2024
Merien founded E52 with Bart in 2015. He thought journalism should capitalize on AI, and our AI tool, Laio, was his idea. He likes to get angry about hydrogen and mobility and writes columns about it.
A staggering 99% of hydrogen in Europe is still produced from fossil fuels, better known as 'grey' hydrogen. Yet initiatives like Mission H2 - supported by Shell and Gasunie - continue to talk about a green hydrogen economy. In 2023, only 0.4% of hydrogen production came from clean electrolysis. Meanwhile, global hydrogen production emits more CO2 than the entire aviation industry. This pattern isn't new: back in 1997, Daimler-Benz promised 100,000 hydrogen cars by 2005, a promise that was never fulfilled. 30 years later, fossil fuel companies are again trying to green their business model with ambitious but unrealistic claims about hydrogen.
Grey hydrogen: the hard figures behind production
The reality of hydrogen production in Europe is shocking. In 2023, total hydrogen production capacity was 10.8 Mt per year, of which a shocking 95.5% was based on fossil fuels. The electrolysis capacity for green hydrogen was only 44,000 tonnes per year, amounting to 0.4% of total production. These figures show that the current hydrogen economy runs entirely on 'grey' hydrogen. Hydrogen demand in Europe was 7.9 Mt in 2023, a 3% decrease compared to 2022 and even 15% less than in 2020. This hydrogen is mainly used in industry, with the refining sector being the largest consumer (58%). Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland together account for 41.5% of total hydrogen consumption. These figures show there's already an enormous existing hydrogen market, which currently relies almost entirely on fossil fuels for production. At present, hydrogen production emits more CO2 than the entire aviation industry.
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Why hydrogen transport remains a sustainability illusion
While organizations like Mission H2 dream of a hydrogen future in transport and other new hydrogen applications, reality lags far behind. By the end of 2023, only 5,939 hydrogen vehicles were registered across Europe. Total hydrogen consumption in the mobility sector was approximately 5,000 tonnes in 2023, a negligible fraction of total hydrogen consumption. Even major players in the transport sector see hydrogen's limitations. Scania, a leading truck manufacturer, has stopped all development of hydrogen vehicles. Their reasoning is clear: hydrogen vehicles consume three times more renewable electricity than direct electric alternatives. This is due to the enormous energy losses in hydrogen production and distribution. This inefficiency makes hydrogen an illogical choice for transport, especially given the scarce availability of green power.
The unfulfilled promises of the hydrogen industry
The promises about hydrogen aren't new. In 1997, Daimler-Benz invested heavily in hydrogen technology, with grand plans to produce 100,000 fuel cell engines annually from 2005. This promise was never fulfilled. Now, 27 years later, we see the same patterns. The EU target for water electrolysis capacity of 6 GW by 2024 will not be met. Of the announced clean hydrogen projects in Europe, only 4% is actually under construction. The largest operational water electrolyzer in Europe has a modest capacity of 24 MW. This history of unfulfilled promises should serve as a warning for the current grand plans of organizations like Mission H2, which are driven by fossil fuel stakeholders like Shell and Gasunie.
What does a realistic, sustainable future actually look like?
The way forward is clear: focus on greening existing hydrogen demand instead of creating new applications. Industry already uses 7.9 Mt of hydrogen annually, mainly in refining and chemical processes. This demand already exists and has existing infrastructure. According to EU regulations, member states must ensure that by 2030 at least 42% of their industrial hydrogen consumption consists of renewable hydrogen. This is already a huge challenge, given the current 0.4% green production. Expanding hydrogen demand for new applications, such as transport, is therefore counterproductive. It distracts from the real challenge: making existing hydrogen production sustainable. Organizations like Mission H2 should focus on this transition instead of promoting new applications that only increase hydrogen demand.