Shifting power: China’s scientific surge vs. Western retreat

For decades, Harvard stood as the world’s leading university. That reality has now changed. New data confirm that Zhejiang University in China is now the world’s most productive research institution. Harvard has now slipped to third place, as Shanghai Jiao Tong University ranks second. 

Recent data published by Leiden Rankings, from the Centre for Science and Technology Studies at Leiden University, reveals a new reality: 19 of the top 25 universities in the world are now Chinese. The ranking assesses academic institutions based on scientific output and impact. The dominance is clear, as Chinese institutions outperform their Western counterparts in high-impact research, particularly in producing papers in the top 10% of their fields. 

This shift is the culmination of a decades-long strategy by Beijing to seize the high ground of scientific innovation. As Chinese universities ascend, American and European institutions are dismantling their competitive advantages through budget cuts and isolationism. 

A systemic shift backed my massive investments

In 2025, China also surpassed the United States for the first time in the number of universities ranked in the Global 2000, with 346 institutions compared with the United States' 319. While 98% of Chinese universities improved their standing, 83% of ranked U.S. institutions saw their positions decline. This surge is powered by a relentless financial engine. 

Between 2019 and 2023, China’s R&D investment grew at an annual rate of 8.9%, nearly double the U.S. rate of 4.7%. By 2024, China’s R&D intensity had reached 2.68% of its GDP, driven by the 14th Five-Year Plan, which mandated aggressive growth in scientific spending. The result is a research ecosystem that is now larger, faster, and increasingly more effective than its American rival.

America’s self-inflicted decline

While Beijing accelerates, Washington has hit the brakes. The displacement of Harvard is symptomatic of a broader American retreat, accelerated by federal policy choices. The Trump administration has enacted significant cuts to federal research funding, slashing the budgets that universities rely on to power their laboratories, according to The New York Times. 

This fiscal contraction has immediate consequences. The National Science Foundation’s "Technology, Innovation, and Partnership" (TIP) directorate, designed to keep the U.S. competitive, received only $410 million of its authorized $4 billion annual budget. This funding gap—amounting to billions of dollars—has starved critical research initiatives just as global competition intensifies.

Beyond the balance sheet, the cultural environment for innovation has deteriorated. Surveys indicate that over a third of U.S. faculty members now self-censor their writing, and nearly 30% do not feel free to speak openly. This atmosphere, combined with restrictive immigration policies, has severed the talent pipeline that historically fueled American science. 

In August 2025, the number of international students arriving in the U.S. plummeted by 19% compared to the previous year. By making the country less welcoming to global talent and cutting the capital required to sustain breakthroughs, the U.S. is voluntarily ceding its strategic advantage.

Europe’s situation 

The first European university to appear in the Leiden ranking is the University of Oxford, ranked 29th, followed immediately by University College London. 10 spots below the two British institutions is the first university in an EU country: the University of Copenhagen. 

Despite warnings that Europe must invest €100 billion annually to survive economically, research budgets were squeezed to pay for military needs. Approximately €2.1 billion was axed. In the Netherlands, the Schoof-led cabinet announced substantial cuts to higher education and research, reducing as much as €1 billion.

Yet, the Commission has tried to correct its route. First, in response to President Trump’s cut to education launched the Choose for Europe program, in an effort to lure international research. The European Commission has proposed a €175 billion budget for Horizon Europe (2028–2034), marking a near doubling of the current programme’s funding.  This represents a significant increase from the €95.5 billion allocated for the 2021–2027 period. 

Future scenarios: 2030 and beyond

Projections indicate that by 2030, China will outspend the U.S. on R&D by more than 30 percent, creating a spending gap of nearly $600 billion. By 2035, China’s R&D expenditure is expected to be 1.8 times that of the United States. This financial dominance allows Chinese institutions to attract top talent and build superior infrastructure. 

While catching up with Beijing’s soaring R&D spending remains a steep challenge, the current data suggests a permanent reorganization of the global intellectual order. The displacement of historic icons like Harvard is not a temporary dip, but the result of a deliberate, well-funded transfer of scientific power. As China solidifies its position as the world’s primary laboratory, the West must decide if it is willing to sacrifice short-term budget priorities to secure its long-term technological sovereignty.