Less internationalization at Randstad universities costs billions

The five 'broad' universities in the Randstad – Leiden, Utrecht, Rotterdam, Amsterdam (UvA and VU) – present grim figures on the consequences of the Internationalization in Balance (WIB) bill. According to a report by SEO Economic Research, commissioned by these universities, strict enforcement of the language requirements in the bill could lead to a loss of 3.9 to 4.8 billion euros in gross domestic product.

"The economic impact of fewer international students in the Randstad is a GDP loss of 3.9 to 4.8 billion euros. About 82 percent of the effect will be felt within the Randstad, with the remaining 18 percent outside it," according to the report. The business services and financial institutions sectors in particular would be hit hard, together accounting for about 60 percent of the loss.

Scenario with a sharp decline

The report is based on a strict scenario from the Foreign Language Education Test (TAO), a core component of the WIB. For arts, social sciences, and medical bachelor's programs in the Randstad, a 75 percent decline in international student numbers is expected. This affects programs such as psychology and economics, which currently have a relatively large number of international students with a reasonable chance of continuing to work in the Netherlands.

SEO emphasizes: “The reduced availability of highly educated international personnel is expected to have a negative effect on the business climate. Approximately 30 percent of companies in the Netherlands with a relatively large number of theoretically educated foreign employees have indicated that they plan to relocate their growth plans or business activities abroad if they are unable to attract sufficient talent.”

Blind spot: technical universities are missing

The report focuses exclusively on the interests of the five comprehensive universities in the Randstad. The comprehensive universities of Groningen, Nijmegen, and Maastricht, as well as the four technical universities - Delft, Eindhoven, Twente, and Wageningen - have been left out of the analysis. This affects the figures, partly because the law makes exceptions for science and technology programs and because the ‘stay rate’, the number of foreign students who continue to live in the region after completing their studies, is much higher for Eindhoven, for example. Labour participation is also linked to the likelihood of students staying: the more students stay, the higher their contribution to GDP. This means that the SEO study provides an incomplete picture: the calculated damage is concentrated in the Randstad (with Delft as a white spot within it).

Randstad versus region

The choice of this demarcation also makes the report a form of advocacy. It confirms the concerns of regional economic boards in Amsterdam, South Holland, and Utrecht, which had previously warned of “negative consequences for the labor market, competitive position, and innovative strength.” It cannot be ruled out that technical universities and border regions will be less affected thanks to their exceptional positions and may even become relatively more attractive to international students. The WIB could thus lead to a shift in international enrollment rather than an actual reduction.

During the investigation, the minister decided to abolish the TAO for existing programs, partly in response to universities' self-regulation plans. They want to “focus more on the influx of international students and give the Dutch language a stronger role in programs.” At the same time, the influx of international students has already declined in recent years. Many universities attribute this decline to the discussion about the introduction of the WIB: the mere intention of such a measure would deter international students.

Erasmus

Annelien Bredenoord (chair of the Executive Board of Erasmus University Rotterdam, one of the clients commissioning the research) emphasizes in an interview with the FD that excluding international students is economically unwise. According to her, the SEO research shows that a significant restriction would cost billions of euros in GDP and put further pressure on the Dutch labor market. “Companies simply need well-qualified personnel” – not only engineers, but also economists, business administrators, and psychologists. She therefore advocates a national talent strategy in which broadly educated people are just as important as technical talent. According to her, the Netherlands must “do everything it can to attract talent here,” because the supply of Dutch students is declining due to demographic decline, while other countries are actively recruiting international talent.

At the same time, Bredenoord acknowledges that universities should not be “deaf” to social concerns, such as pressure on the housing market and the anglicization of education. That is why the universities have drawn up their own plan to steer the influx of students in a more targeted manner, for example, by imposing enrollment quotas on overcrowded English-language programs and by paying more attention to the Dutch language and culture. She does not see this as a rearguard action, but as a necessary step to maintain support: “It is important that people can have a conversation with each other in Dutch at a minimum level. Because there is clearly a deep-seated need for this.”