Global risks are rising, and the future looks stormy, WEF warns

As world leaders prepare to convene in Davos later this month, a stark warning has emerged about the state of global risk. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 paints a picture of a world increasingly shaped by rivalry, fragmentation and uncertainty, an era the report calls the “age of competition.” The findings, based on a survey of more than 1,300 global leaders and risk experts, suggest that the challenges ahead span geopolitics, society, technology and the environment.

“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks, from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt, and changes our collective capacity to address them,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum. “But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion.”

Geoeconomic confrontation tops the list

At the forefront of global concern is geoeconomic confrontation: economic rivalry used as leverage between nations. Trade disputes, tariffs, investment restrictions and competition over critical resources now rank as the most pressing risk over the next two years. In the latest survey, this category leapfrogged traditional armed conflict, reflecting how economic tools have become geopolitical weapons.

The report describes how this dynamic could escalate: port blockades, export restrictions on key goods, canceled contracts and capital controls are no longer theoretical risks, but potential flashpoints that could disrupt global supply chains and cooperation.

Division and disinformation across societies

Following geoeconomic tensions, the short-term risk ranking includes misinformation and disinformation, as well as societal polarization, phenomena the WEF says are both causes and effects of a more fragmented world. These forces have eroded trust in institutions and fueled political and social divides.

“This mix is similar in respondents’ two-year outlook,” the report notes, with information integrity and social cohesion now central to how leaders perceive risk. In a world increasingly interconnected yet sharply divided, digital misinformation and political fractures pose tangible threats to stability.

Shifting tech risks: from opportunity to unease

While frontier technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing promise economic and scientific breakthroughs, the report also highlights their risk side. In the immediate horizon, adverse outcomes from these technologies rank lower, but over a ten-year period, they climb sharply in perceived severity.

Experts point to concerns about AI’s impact on jobs, social stability, and even military systems. These long-term technological risks, once considered remote, are increasingly central to strategic planning.

Climate still looms large in the long view

Environmental threats, from extreme weather to biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth's systems, may have dropped in prominence relative to short-term geopolitical concerns, but they still dominate the ten-year risk outlook. These climate-related risks rank among the top three in long-term severity rankings.

The juxtaposition of short-term economic and political risks with long-term environmental risks underscores a core tension in global policy: how to balance urgent crises with existential threats that unfold over decades.

A fragmented global order

Underpinning the risk outlook is an emerging multipolar world in which collective action is harder to achieve. According to the report, 68% of respondents believe global politics will become more fragmented over the next decade, with traditional multilateral systems under stress.

This fragmentation feeds into the core theme of the WEF’s Annual Meeting 2026: “A Spirit of Dialogue”. As the report suggests, rebuilding trust and cooperation will be essential if global actors are to avoid the most perilous scenarios.