Food security is under pressure: 'Innovation will help us out'

In 36 years of serving in the British army, Lieutenant General Richard Nugee experienced many conflict situations, including Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The last part of his military career was devoted to one special operation: reviewing the UK Defense’s climate change and sustainability approach. 

Thanks to his work, he gained international recognition, became a thought leader, and expanded his policy activity, working as a director and advisor of several startups. Food security is one of the topics that interest him the most, combining his past serving in the army with his attentiveness to climate change. 

Lieutenant General Nugee will be the opening keynote speaker for the 10th edition of F&A Next. The event, which will take place in Wageningen on May 21 and 22, is a chance for agrifood investors, companies, and innovators to meet and connect. In his speech, he will discuss the impact of geopolitical developments on food security and a resilient agrifood system. We spoke with him about some of the implications of this crisis and innovation's role in solving it. 

Climate change, war, and geopolitical tensions are heavily impacting food security. What is your take on the current situation? 

“As things stand now, there are two main problems. Climate change makes growing food more difficult due to hotter temperatures, a wider expanse between rainfalls, and increasing desertification. Another aspect strictly connected to that is the heat domes, which have a marked effect on the world’s food baskets—as happened in Canada a couple of years ago.

At the same time, non-state actors, such as Boko Haram in sub-Saharan Africa, use food and water as weapons, generating an exacerbation of the lack of food and potential conflicts. Moreover, this is also happening in relatively stable countries, such as Egypt and Jordan, where people could turn against their governments. All of these things are coming together and generating greater food insecurity.”

Given these threats to food security, how should Europe prepare for them? 

“The Mediterranean Sea has been a stabilizing force for European agriculture for thousands of years, but it is now heating up almost twice as fast as the average ocean. As a result, Europe is becoming less food-productive amid a warming climate and a decrease in fish. There is a debate in the UK between those who argue for full self-sufficiency and those who advocate for widening our ability to trade food worldwide. 

There should be a balance between the two. On the one hand, technology can make it easier to enhance our food productivity. On the other hand, we need to improve global food trade links and work on evenly distributing nourishment for everyone. This way, not only Europe, but the whole world will secure itself against the damage posed by climate change.”

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What solutions should young entrepreneurs look at to mitigate the food crisis? 

“As someone who has spent most of his life in security, what is the real threat from climate change? It will get hotter, and there will be more floods and drought periods, ultimately hindering our ability to grow food. It is all about food production and how to help grow food in environments where it can’t be done now or won’t be able in the future. 

The other side focuses on solutions to improve soils in Europe, ensuring that our yield can improve without relying on synthetic fertilizers. They have been brilliant, but the soil can take no more after over sixty years of usage. We must think of ways to get the same yields without them.”

How can agrifood startups stay competitive in this scenario? 

“Having been involved to some extent with several startups, having a proven outcome is the first thing to focus on. In the agrifood sector, this takes a lot of time, which, in the startup world, strictly relates to money. 

In many parts of the world where there is wealth, food is not a problem; hence, it is not seen as a priority. Energy is. However, we must understand that we need to improve our food quality and farms’ yield while cutting down on fertilizers. This would require a level of investment which is not yet forthcoming.”

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How should organizations rethink their approach to setting climate change at the top of their agenda?  

“I often talk about looking at things through a sustainability lens. By this, I mean how to look at something differently, seeking what opportunities there are for improvement. For instance, what if there was no oil tomorrow? What would you do as a company to ensure you continue to operate? I strongly encourage companies to look at how they do business in each part of their supply chain. 

The second aspect is looking for opportunities. Are there any new technologies we can embrace? This is what I have done with the military: finding new technologies that would ultimately lead to a better outcome. Then, look for innovation. We will find our way out of the crises through innovation.”

How do you look at the future? 

“As a soldier, you have to be an optimist. I used to contrast myself with an economist called Malthus, who predicted that the world would have run out of food around the middle of the nineteenth century due to the Industrial Revolution. In his view, the revolution would have increased the world population so much that there wouldn’t have been enough food for everyone. He was fundamentally wrong, as he didn’t factor in the technology that would help produce more food when pushed in. 

It will be difficult, but we will find the technology to help us. We are in a stage of evolution where the status quo seems more attractive than the threat of the future–there will be a time when that is no longer the case. I rely on my philosophy of technology to get us out of trouble. Some people will say it is very naive, but look at how fast AI was developed. If we apply the same effect to some of the world's problems, technology will accelerate quickly.”