Economic growth: Amsterdam and Eindhoven lead the way

Amsterdam and Brainport Eindhoven are important drivers of Dutch economic growth. According to Rabobank, both regions will grow by around 3% this year, compared to an average of 1.5% in the Netherlands.

This year, the highest economic growth is expected in Greater Amsterdam and Brainport Eindhoven, at around 3%. Southeast Friesland (around Heerenveen), Twente, Utrecht, parts of Zeeland (Middelburg and Vlissingen) and North and Southwest Drenthe are also expected to perform better than the national average. The forecasts remain uncertain due to international trade tensions and the fall of the cabinet.

Household consumption

Household consumption is the main driver of growth. Thanks to the tight labor market and rising real wages, households are maintaining their spending levels. Government consumption is also contributing to economic growth.

Business investment lags behind

Business investment, on the other hand, is lagging behind. Uncertainty about grid congestion, nitrogen policy, and political instability following the fall of the Schoof cabinet is holding back entrepreneurs. Geopolitical tensions are also putting additional pressure on investment decisions and the Dutch export position.

Favorable outlook for most sectors

Industry is expected to grow by 2.3% this year. However, the picture is less favorable than the growth figure suggests. On the one hand, industry is benefiting from the clarity provided by the trade agreement between the EU and the US, but on the other hand, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in this export-oriented sector. Among other things, rising wage costs and lagging productivity are weighing on growth. The seemingly rosy figure is mainly due to the so-called carry-over effect: the favorable starting position at the end of 2024 is carried over to 2025, which ‘boosts’ the growth figure for industry.

The construction sector is expected to grow by only 0.3% in 2025 this quarter. The lower growth is due to bottlenecks such as staff shortages, nitrogen issues, and the fall of the Schoof cabinet. These factors are also contributing to a decline in the number of building permits issued, which is further slowing down the sector.

Agriculture and other business services – such as temporary employment agencies, rental companies, and facility services – are lagging behind the national average with an expected growth of 0.3%.

In contrast to these sectors is the ICT sector, which is expected to grow by 2.9% this year. The rapid rise of AI and the tight labor market are stimulating investment in digital technologies. The transport sector is also showing above-average growth of 2.5%. The trade agreement between the EU and the US is also strengthening the growth potential of these sectors.