Delaying climate action leads to quadruple bill for future generations, scientists prove

Tipping points in the climate system act like dominoes. Once one point is crossed, a chain reaction of irreversible consequences ensues: accelerated ocean warming, rising sea levels, more extreme weather, and even the cessation of the warm Gulf Stream (AMOC) are real risks.

An understudied consequence of crossing these tipping points is the explosive cost increase to repair the damage. New research published in Climate and Atmospheric Science shows that the financial impact after such a tipping point is much higher than if action had been taken earlier. This is the first study to quantify these costs specifically.

Small shifts, huge consequences

Examples of tipping points include the melting of polar ice and the death of coral reefs. Once these thresholds are crossed, drastic changes follow: coastal cities disappear underwater, and biodiversity is irreparably affected. The United Nations defines tipping points as “critical thresholds in a system that lead to profound, permanent changes.” While the ecological consequences of these tipping points are well documented, surprisingly, little is known about the financial effort required to manage or prevent these crises.

For example, how much will it cost to stop the melting of polar ice before it is too late? And what is the financial burden on our children if we do nothing?

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Mathematical logic offers new insights

Each tipping point has unique properties but follows the same mathematical logic. This allows researchers to use models to predict better how these tipping points behave and when warning signals become visible.

One notable discovery from the research is the so-called “overshoot” window. Immediately after crossing a tipping point, the cost of recovery does not immediately increase exponentially but initially increases linearly. This is because some processes, such as ocean warming, proceed relatively slowly. This temporarily provides some breathing room, but once this window closes, costs rise much faster. The longer the window, the higher the final price.

The way back is longer than the way there

Many effects of climate change are irreversible. Plant and animal species that go extinct do not return. Even if we take drastic action after crossing a tipping point, recovery may require much more effort than the initial damage. Kooloth warns, “If we continue with our current emissions and all the polar ice disappears by 2100, a return to 2024 emissions levels will probably not be enough. We might have to go back to pre-industrial levels.”