Climate policy - depicted as a roller coaster

A new government, a new climate policy. This seems like a good moment to look back on what has been achieved so far. In this story, we compare climate policy to a roller coaster. 1990: the cart is slowly pulled uphill. Newspaper articles about climate change are readily ignored. Then a sudden acceleration: the Paris Agreement. After that, the ride comes to a complete halt. For years. Time for a boost, like the Superman at Walibi.

The process of forming a new cabinet is in full swing. What course will the Netherlands take with its climate policy? That remains to be seen. Much will depend on which parties ultimately form the government — and how much courage they show in the energy transition. The past is less uncertain. Looking back, we can clearly see how the climate roller coaster has progressed so far.

Actually, the beginning of a roller coaster is rarely exciting. The same applies to the roller coaster of climate policy. Slowly, the car is pulled upwards. Silence before the storm. In 1988, an article appears in The New York Times: “Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate.” But the world remains silent. Reports and studies pile up, but the pace of the roller coaster hardly changes.

Until the tipping point. Heat waves, forest fires. It can no longer be ignored: the climate is changing. The car goes into free fall — now the roller coaster really begins. In 2005, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) published a report. “The significance of climate change in the Netherlands.” But concrete agreements and large-scale objectives are still lacking.

And then, in 2015, the climax of the climate roller coaster: the Paris Agreement. We're going over the top! For the first time, countries are making agreements to keep global warming well below 2°C. We are pursuing ambitious CO₂ reduction targets. We are supporting each other with funding and knowledge. Never before have we all been so ambitious. Never before has the roller coaster been so spectacular. With the 2019 Climate Act, the Netherlands has a clear roadmap with targets for 2030 and 2050.

But then: considerable disappointment. For years. The cart rolls slowly along the rails. Sleep-inducing. According to the PBL, the chance that we will achieve the target of a 55% CO₂ reduction by 2030 is less than 5%. Many people are skeptical about how the cabinet dealt with climate targets during the last term of office. RTL Nieuws headlined: “Report by environmental organizations: 2030 climate target unachievable, cabinet ‘doing almost nothing’.”

Citizens, politicians, and policymakers shout from their carts. “Is anything going to happen?” “Hey, a little speed would be nice!” says GroenLinks. But not everyone is eager for another loop. And PVV and FvD? They never got on board in the first place. They stood on the sidelines, waving to the departing carts.

The climate roller coaster needs a big boost—like the Superman at Walibi. But it is far from certain that this acceleration will happen. That depends on who will govern our country in the future. While one party enthusiastically draws up plans for the climate roller coaster, another quickly erases them. New permits for wind farms, subsidies for sustainability: who knows if they will happen.

Who knows if this will still be a thrill ride.