Can the Netherlands become a nuclear power, alone or with others?
The Netherlands has the expertise to build its own nuclear bomb, but a nuclear bomb alone does not automatically result in nuclear power.
Published on March 16, 2025
Inert training version of a B61 in an underground Weapons Storage and Security System (WS3) vault at Volkel Air Base, Netherlands. © US Air Force photo, Logan Tuttle - This image was released by the United States Air Force, via Wikipedia
Merien co-founded E52 in 2015 and envisioned AI in journalism, leading to Laio. He writes bold columns on hydrogen and mobility—often with a sharp edge.
The geopolitical relationships in Europe are changing rapidly. The American nuclear umbrella for Europe is no longer a given. This has led to various initiatives: Belgium is advocating for a European nuclear program, while Scandinavia is considering cooperation with Poland and the Baltic states for a joint nuclear capacity. These shifts mean an increasing departure from our non-proliferation principles. Still, at the same time, the feeling is growing that our nuclear weapons are necessary for national security and stability. What are the possibilities for the Netherlands? Can we become a nuclear power on our own, or would cooperation with other countries, as in Scandinavia, be a strategically smart move for the future of our security?
The shift in the geopolitical playing field
The geostrategic situation in Europe has changed drastically in recent years, with the threat of Russian expansion and growing instability in transatlantic relations being essential factors. With the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States in 2024, doubts have arisen about the reliability of American security guarantees to European countries. This has led to serious considerations to strengthen the nuclear deterrent capacity in Europe. Prime Minister Bart De Wever of Belgium has argued for greater European investment in nuclear capacity, as relying on the French nuclear umbrella alone is not considered sufficient. This development marks a potential tipping point in Europe's strategic policy.
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Regional initiatives in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe
Simultaneously with the discussions about expanding nuclear capacity within France, other European countries, including Finland and Poland, are talking about developing an independent nuclear deterrent. Professor Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen from Finland emphasized that Europe may need to think more seriously about building up its own nuclear capabilities, especially in the Scandinavian and Baltic regions. These countries feel directly threatened by the presence of Russia and the unpredictability of the geopolitical future in Europe. Concerns about Russian aggression have been expressed before in Poland and the Baltic states, and these countries consider nuclear deterrence as a potentially essential part of their national security strategy.
B61 Thermonuclear Bomb
The Netherlands' role in the nuclear landscape
The Netherlands finds itself at a crossroads regarding its role in Europe's nuclear strategy. Although the Netherlands does not possess nuclear weapons itself, it is an important member of NATO, which has American atomic weapons on its territory as part of a shared nuclear policy. Nevertheless, there is increasing discussion in the Netherlands about a possible independent atomic strategy, especially now that more countries are doubting the reliability of American nuclear protection. The Netherlands has a considerable scientific and technical infrastructure that could support nuclear development, partly through organizations such as Urenco, which play a crucial role in uranium enrichment. This technological basis offers the Netherlands potential opportunities for its nuclear program, although it entails technical and diplomatic challenges.
Dutch expertise in nuclear technology
The Netherlands has a rich history in nuclear technology, thanks in part to the work of institutions such as Urenco and through its contributions to scientific research and training in the nuclear domain. Urenco, with its facilities in Almelo, plays a crucial role in the global uranium enrichment market, offering the Netherlands a head start in nuclear capacity. This expertise stems from historical ties with key figures in atomic science and the influence of international collaborations. Dutch universities and research institutes offer globally recognized programs that train specialists in nuclear technologies and physics, who could contribute to a national nuclear program.
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In addition to producing these materials, advanced knowledge of weapons technology and delivery systems is also necessary. This includes developing ballistic missiles or anti-aircraft systems that can efficiently and accurately deliver the nuclear warhead to its target. These technical requirements are complex and require significant investments, both in terms of money and time.
Strategic collaborations
Given the technical and diplomatic challenges of a national approach, collaboration with other European countries is a strategic option for the Netherlands. Scandinavian countries, with their advanced aviation industry, such as SAAB in Sweden, could be valuable partners for developing delivery systems for nuclear weapons. Such a collaboration would not only share costs and risks, but also turn the small size of individual countries into a more powerful regional alliance with shared security interests. This could perhaps result in a new type of European defense collaboration that goes beyond existing NATO strategies and takes more account of contemporary threats.
The Netherlands is bound by various international treaties, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which could complicate such a plan. However, growing global tensions call for reconsidering the nuclear position, whereby countries may be increasingly inclined to independently navigate minefields of international diplomacy to guarantee their national security.
The Netherlands therefore has the technological knowledge and scientific expertise to build its own nuclear bomb in a relatively short period of time. However, the lack of suitable delivery systems, such as rockets and airplanes, which are necessary to effectively deploy nuclear weapons, is a problem. Developing these systems ourselves in the short term is unrealistic, making cooperation with international partners essential.
The crucial question for now is not whether the Netherlands is capable of developing nuclear weapons, but whether it is desirable to go down this road. Given the geopolitical situation, a solid defense strategy based on cooperation with reliable European partners seems the most pragmatic and safe option for the Netherlands.
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