{"id":181068,"date":"2019-08-14T07:00:41","date_gmt":"2019-08-14T05:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/innovationorigins.com\/?p=181068"},"modified":"2019-08-14T07:00:41","modified_gmt":"2019-08-14T05:00:41","slug":"research-by-ku-leuven-brings-proof-messi-is-better-than-ronaldo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ioplus.nl\/archive\/en\/research-by-ku-leuven-brings-proof-messi-is-better-than-ronaldo\/","title":{"rendered":"Research by KU Leuven brings proof: Messi is ‘goater’ than Ronaldo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Researchers at KU Leuven<\/a> and data intelligence company SciSports<\/a> have developed a new algorithm to assess football players’ on-the-ball actions. Their model goes beyond traditional player statistics like the number of goals and assists, offering a more complete assessment of a player\u2019s performance and contribution to his team.<\/p>\n

By Bregt Van Hoeyveld, KU Leuven<\/em><\/p>\n

For more than a decade, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi have been the dominant forces in international football. Both have a strong claim to the title of the Greatest of All Time<\/em>, or GOAT: both players have an amazing track record; they\u2019ve each scored more than 600 goals for their club and country, and both are five-time winners of the Ballon d\u2019Or. On paper, therefore, it\u2019s impossible to identify the one and only GOAT. But a new model developed in Belgium and the Netherlands may have the solution.<\/p>\n

Researchers from KU Leuven and data intelligence company SciSports (Enschede, the Netherlands) have developed an algorithm to value a player\u2019s impact on the game. \u201cFootball players are often judged solely on their goals and assists,\u201d says Professor Davis from the Department of Computer Science at KU Leuven. \u201cBut the number of goals is not the best parameter if you consider that on average, there are 1,600 actions in each game. That\u2019s why our computer model takes into account all on-the-ball actions: shots, passes, dribbles, tackles, everything.\u201d<\/p>\n

The model generates a rating called VAEP (Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities<\/em>). This rating indicates how a specific player\u2019s actions contribute to the game score \u2013 offensively (scoring goals) as well as defensively (preventing goals from the opposition). This way, you can evaluate a player\u2019s performance and his contribution to the team in greater detail.<\/p>\n

So, what can this novel method contribute to the Messi-Ronaldo debate? The researchers examined several seasons of the Spanish La Liga (from 2013-14 until 2017-18) and compared both players\u2019 performances. The results indicate that in recent years, Lionel Messi had the advantage over his rival.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\u00a9 KU Leuven<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This graph represents all players in the English and Spanish leagues during the 2017-2018 season. \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bLionel Messi (red) is the clear outlier with a VAEP rating of 1.21 per game. Ronaldo (blue) records a considerably lower score of 0.61.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cIn the first seasons, the ratings of Ronaldo and Messi are very similar,\u201d explains PhD student Tom Decroos from KU Leuven. \u201cBut since the 2015-2016 season, the Argentinian striker has the edge. Traditionally you find a trade-off between the quality and quantity of the actions. Players like Kevin De Bruyne and Paul Pogba perform a large number of actions but with a lower average value per action. Other players perform fewer actions, but with a bigger impact. This is typically the case for strikers such as Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah, and Cristiano Ronaldo. In this respect, Lionel Messi is a true outlier: the Argentinian performs a large number of actions with a high value.\u201d<\/p>\n

What about the new kids in town?<\/h3>\n

In the meantime, there have been some changes at Real Madrid: all-time top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo has joined Juventus in the Italian Serie A and Eden Hazard was brought in as his replacement. The VAEP framework suggests that the Belgian player could be a worthy successor. Based on their performances in the 2017-2018 season \u2013 Ronaldo\u2019s final season for Madrid \u2013 both players seem evenly matched. Hazard, playing for Chelsea at the time, recorded a VAEP rating of 0.64 per game: this indicates that his actions contribute 0.64 goals more than the opposing team. Ronaldo\u2019s rating for that season was just a fraction lower: 0.61 per game.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough their ratings are very similar, we\u2019ve also noticed some obvious differences,\u201d says Lotte Bransen, scientific researcher at SciSports. \u201cRonaldo stands out because of his finishing skills. His VAEP rating is highly dependent on the quality of his shots and to a lesser extent of his dribbles. Eden Hazard, on the other hand, is more involved with the team play: his rating is more evenly distributed across shots, dribbles, and passes. If Real Madrid wants to get the best out of Eden Hazard, they will have to adjust their playing style.\u201d<\/p>\n

Frenkie de Jong<\/h3>\n

Real Madrid\u2019s rival FC Barcelona have acquired the services of Frenkie De Jong. The Dutch midfielder arrives at the Nou Camp as a very promising prospect, and rightly so according to Bransen. \u201cOur research points out that De Jong has been highly influential for Ajax during the previous season. In the Dutch league, he was the midfielder with the highest rating for passes and dribbles. In terms of playing style and qualities, De Jong seems a perfect fit to replace club legend Andres Iniesta.\u201d<\/p>\n

(Continue below the video)<\/em><\/p>\n